Brandon Holmes vs Modestino Rodrigues
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-2-0Record8-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
76"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Modestino Rodrigues is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Brandon Holmes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+29→ 1621
If they lose-19→ 1573
If they win+19→ 1680
If they lose-29→ 1632
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1551 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brandon HolmesModestino Rodrigues
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Modestino Rodrigues57%
Brandon Holmes 43%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Modestino Rodrigues a 57% favorite over Brandon Holmes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Modestino Rodrigues holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1661 to 1592, a 69-point edge.
Modestino Rodrigues enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Brandon Holmes finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Modestino Rodrigues 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.