Combat Edge Intelligence

Brandon Holmes vs Murilo Bustamante

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-1-0Record15-8-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
TNT Martial Arts & FitnessTeamBrazilian Top Team· 1657 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brandon HolmesNow 1620
If they win+24→ 1644
If they lose-24→ 1596
Murilo BustamanteNow 1619
If they win+16→ 1635
If they lose-16→ 1603

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1539 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.33
TBD
Strike accuracy
33%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.90
TBD
Strike defense
60%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.46
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
55%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.23

Trajectory

Brandon HolmesMurilo Bustamante
155016002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (67%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
0 (0%)
Submission
4 (27%)
2 (33%)
Decision
4 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Brandon Holmes59%
Murilo Bustamante 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Holmes a 59% favorite over Murilo Bustamante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1620 vs 1619), separated by just 1 points.

Brandon Holmes finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Murilo Bustamante 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.