Brandon Jenkins vs Erick Gonzalez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-12-0Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
71"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamFight Science
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1595
If they lose-12→ 1571
If they win+16→ 1600
If they lose-16→ 1568
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brandon JenkinsErick Gonzalez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Erick Gonzalez60%
Brandon Jenkins 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Erick Gonzalez a 60% favorite over Brandon Jenkins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1583 vs 1584), separated by just 1 points.
Brandon Jenkins enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Erick Gonzalez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brandon Jenkins finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Erick Gonzalez 64%.
Erick Gonzalez carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.