Brandon Jenkins vs Joe Duarte
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-12-0Record10-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamThe Arena
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1565
If they lose-16→ 1533
If they win+24→ 1576
If they lose-24→ 1528
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1535 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon JenkinsJoe Duarte
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brandon Jenkins59%
Joe Duarte 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Jenkins a 59% favorite over Joe Duarte in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Joe Duarte's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1549 vs 1552), separated by just 3 points.
Joe Duarte enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brandon Jenkins finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Joe Duarte 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.