Brandon Jenkins vs Paul Rodriguez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-12-0Record10-9-2
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
71"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamAmerican Top Team Orlando
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1565
If they lose-16→ 1533
If they win+16→ 1571
If they lose-16→ 1539
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon JenkinsPaul Rodriguez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brandon Jenkins60%
Paul Rodriguez 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Jenkins a 60% favorite over Paul Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Paul Rodriguez's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1549 vs 1555), separated by just 6 points.
Brandon Jenkins finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Paul Rodriguez 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.