Combat Edge Intelligence

Brandon Lewis vs Lewis McGrillen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-3-0Record12-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'6"
64"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Superman's MMATeamManchester Top Team

What's at stake

Lewis McGrillen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Brandon Lewis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brandon LewisNow 1591
If they win+19→ 1610
If they lose-13→ 1578
Lewis McGrillenNow 1664
If they win+13→ 1677
If they lose-19→ 1645

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
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Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Brandon LewisLewis McGrillen
16001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
10 (83%)
1 (14%)
Submission
1 (8%)
3 (43%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Lewis McGrillen79%
Brandon Lewis 21%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Lewis McGrillen a 79% favorite over Brandon Lewis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Lewis McGrillen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1591, a 73-point edge.

Brandon Lewis finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Lewis McGrillen 92%.

Lewis McGrillen carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.