Combat Edge Intelligence

Brandon Lewis vs Rafael Rebello

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-4-0Record9-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'5"
64"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Superman's MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brandon LewisNow 1578
If they win+16→ 1594
If they lose-16→ 1562
Rafael RebelloNow 1577
If they win+16→ 1593
If they lose-16→ 1561

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.19
TBD
Strike accuracy
33%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.29
TBD
Strike defense
58%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.82
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
75%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Brandon LewisRafael Rebello
155016002011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
1 (11%)
1 (14%)
Submission
6 (67%)
3 (43%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Brandon Lewis60%
Rafael Rebello 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Lewis a 60% favorite over Rafael Rebello in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1578 vs 1577), separated by just 1 points.

Rafael Rebello enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Brandon Lewis finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Rebello 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.