Combat Edge Intelligence

Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-10-2Record10-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'4"
70"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight126 lbs
Fortis MMATeamGreat Britain Top Team

What's at stake

Brandon Moreno is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Lone’er Kavanagh carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brandon MorenoNow 1748
If they win+10→ 1758
If they lose-14→ 1734
Lone’er KavanaghNow 1689
If they win+19→ 1708
If they lose-13→ 1676

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.89
Sig. strikes / min
4.13
44%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.49
60%
Strike defense
57%
1.47
Takedown avg.
1.12
44%
Takedown accuracy
45%
65%
Takedown defense
94%
0.43
Submission avg.
0.22

Trajectory

Brandon MorenoLone’er Kavanagh
1600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (22%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
11 (48%)
Submission
1 (10%)
7 (30%)
Decision
5 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Brandon Moreno and Lone’er Kavanagh within a point of even.

Brandon Moreno holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1689, a 59-point edge.

Brandon Moreno enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brandon Moreno finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Lone’er Kavanagh 50%.

Brandon Moreno carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.