Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-2Record10-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'4"
70"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight126 lbs
Fortis MMATeamGreat Britain Top Team
What's at stake
Brandon Moreno is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Lone’er Kavanagh carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1757
If they lose-15→ 1733
If they win+19→ 1690
If they lose-13→ 1658
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon MorenoLone’er Kavanagh
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brandon Moreno52%
Lone’er Kavanagh 48%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Moreno a 52% favorite over Lone’er Kavanagh in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Brandon Moreno holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1671, a 77-point edge.
Brandon Moreno enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brandon Moreno finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Lone’er Kavanagh 50%.
Brandon Moreno and Lone’er Kavanagh share 1 common opponent: Brandon Royval.
Brandon Moreno carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.