Brandon Moreno vs Louis Smolka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
23-10-2Record17-9-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'9"
70"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fortis MMATeamTeam Oyama
What's at stake
Brandon Moreno is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Louis Smolka carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1756
If they lose-16→ 1732
If they win+16→ 1646
If they lose-8→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon MorenoLouis Smolka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brandon Moreno79%
Louis Smolka 21%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Moreno a 79% favorite over Louis Smolka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Brandon Moreno holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1630, a 118-point edge.
Brandon Moreno enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brandon Moreno finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Louis Smolka 88%.
Brandon Moreno carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.