Brandon Moreno vs Louis Smolka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-10-2Record17-9-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'9"
70"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fortis MMATeamTeam Oyama· 1643 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Brandon Moreno is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Louis Smolka carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1765
If they lose-16→ 1741
If they win+16→ 1646
If they lose-8→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brandon MorenoLouis Smolka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brandon Moreno88%
Louis Smolka 12%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Moreno a 88% favorite over Louis Smolka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Brandon Moreno holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1757 to 1630, a 127-point edge.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brandon Moreno finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Louis Smolka 88%.
Brandon Moreno carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.