Combat Edge Intelligence

Brandon Moreno vs Sergio Pettis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-10-2Record25-8-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'6"
70"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight134 lbs
Fortis MMATeamRoufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brandon MorenoNow 1748
If they win+12→ 1760
If they lose-12→ 1736
Sergio PettisNow 1752
If they win+12→ 1764
If they lose-12→ 1740

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.84
Sig. strikes / min
3.88
44%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.91
60%
Strike defense
65%
1.36
Takedown avg.
0.85
15%
Takedown accuracy
37%
65%
Takedown defense
68%
0.40
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Brandon MorenoSergio Pettis
1750202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (22%)
KO/TKO
5 (20%)
11 (48%)
Submission
4 (16%)
7 (30%)
Decision
16 (64%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Brandon Moreno and Sergio Pettis within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1748 vs 1752), separated by just 4 points.

Brandon Moreno enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brandon Moreno finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Pettis 36%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.