Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-2Record14-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"Reach 68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fortis MMATeamWilkes Martial Arts
What's at stake
Brandon Moreno is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Steve Erceg carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1759
If they lose-13→ 1735
If they win+18→ 1723
If they lose-14→ 1691
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1741 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon MorenoSteve Erceg
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg within a point of even.
Brandon Moreno holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1705, a 43-point edge.
Brandon Moreno enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Steve Erceg enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Brandon Moreno finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Steve Erceg 57%.
Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg share 2 common opponents: Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France.
Brandon Moreno carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.