Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-10-2Record14-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70"Reach 68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Fortis MMATeamWilkes Martial Arts
What's at stake
Brandon Moreno is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Steve Erceg carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1767
If they lose-14→ 1743
If they win+19→ 1707
If they lose-13→ 1675
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1676 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brandon MorenoSteve Erceg
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brandon Moreno73%
Steve Erceg 27%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Moreno a 73% favorite over Steve Erceg in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Brandon Moreno holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1757 to 1688, a 69-point edge.
Brandon Moreno finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Steve Erceg 57%.
Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg share 2 common opponents: Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France.
Brandon Moreno carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.