Brandon Royval vs Matt Schnell
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record17-11-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'8"
68"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Factory XTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Brandon Royval is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Matt Schnell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1719
If they lose-16→ 1695
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-8→ 1598
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon RoyvalMatt Schnell
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brandon Royval92%
Matt Schnell 8%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Royval a 92% favorite over Matt Schnell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Brandon Royval holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1606, a 105-point edge.
Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brandon Royval finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Matt Schnell 69%.
Brandon Royval and Matt Schnell share 2 common opponents: Matheus Nicolau and Rogério Bontorin.
Matt Schnell carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.