Brandon Thatch vs Gunnar Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record19-6-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
74,0"Reach72"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamMjolnir
What's at stake
Gunnar Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Brandon Thatch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1668
If they lose-13→ 1636
If they win+13→ 1722
If they lose-19→ 1690
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon ThatchGunnar Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Gunnar Nelson75%
Brandon Thatch 25%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Gunnar Nelson a 75% favorite over Brandon Thatch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Gunnar Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1649, a 60-point edge.
Brandon Thatch enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Brandon Thatch finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Gunnar Nelson 89%.
Brandon Thatch carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.