Combat Edge Intelligence

Brandon Thatch vs Justin Edwards

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-5-0Record10-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'2"Height5'10"
74,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamTeam Jorge Gurgel

What's at stake

Brandon Thatch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Justin Edwards carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brandon ThatchNow 1649
If they win+13→ 1662
If they lose-19→ 1630
Justin EdwardsNow 1577
If they win+19→ 1596
If they lose-13→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.70
Sig. strikes / min
2.68
43%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.32
53%
Strike defense
51%
1.36
Takedown avg.
2.14
67%
Takedown accuracy
27%
50%
Takedown defense
27%
0.68
Submission avg.
0.97

Trajectory

Brandon ThatchJustin Edwards
1600165017002016201720182019

Win method breakdown

8 (73%)
KO/TKO
1 (10%)
3 (27%)
Submission
8 (80%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Brandon Thatch70%
Justin Edwards 30%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Thatch a 70% favorite over Justin Edwards in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Brandon Thatch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1577, a 72-point edge.

Brandon Thatch enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Brandon Thatch finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Justin Edwards 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.