Combat Edge Intelligence

Brandon Thatch vs Paulo Thiago

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-5-0Record19-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
74,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamX-Gym

What's at stake

Brandon Thatch is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Paulo Thiago carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brandon ThatchNow 1649
If they win+14→ 1663
If they lose-18→ 1631
Paulo ThiagoNow 1595
If they win+14→ 1609
If they lose-10→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.70
Sig. strikes / min
1.71
43%
Strike accuracy
39%
3.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.99
53%
Strike defense
64%
1.36
Takedown avg.
1.42
67%
Takedown accuracy
32%
50%
Takedown defense
64%
0.68
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Brandon ThatchPaulo Thiago
1600165017002016201720182019

Win method breakdown

8 (73%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
3 (27%)
Submission
10 (53%)
0 (0%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Brandon Thatch70%
Paulo Thiago 30%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Thatch a 70% favorite over Paulo Thiago in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Brandon Thatch holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1595, a 54-point edge.

Brandon Thatch enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Brandon Thatch finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Thiago 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.