Brandon Vera vs Maurício Rua
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-0Record27-14-1
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReach76"
246 lbsWeight205 lbs
Alliance MMATeamUniversidade da Luta
What's at stake
Maurício Rua is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Brandon Vera carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1629
If they lose-9→ 1605
If they win+9→ 1700
If they lose-15→ 1676
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon VeraMaurício Rua
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Maurício Rua73%
Brandon Vera 27%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Maurício Rua a 73% favorite over Brandon Vera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Maurício Rua holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1691 to 1614, a 77-point edge.
Brandon Vera enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brandon Vera finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Maurício Rua 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.