Brendan Allen vs Gegard Mousasi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-7-0Record49-9-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'2"
75"Reach42,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Jurojin
What's at stake
Gegard Mousasi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brendan Allen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1844
If they lose-11→ 1820
If they win+11→ 1867
If they lose-13→ 1843
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1740 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1733 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brendan AllenGegard Mousasi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brendan Allen74%
Gegard Mousasi 26%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Allen a 74% favorite over Gegard Mousasi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gegard Mousasi's way (46%).
Gegard Mousasi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1856 to 1831, a 25-point edge.
Brendan Allen enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brendan Allen finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Gegard Mousasi 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.