Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-7-0Record17-10-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'4"
75"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamScottish Hit Squad
What's at stake
Brendan Allen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1825
If they lose-17→ 1801
If they win+17→ 1679
If they lose-7→ 1655
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brendan AllenPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brendan Allen92%
Paul Craig 8%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Allen a 92% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Brendan Allen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1818 to 1662, a 156-point edge.
Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Brendan Allen finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Brendan Allen and Paul Craig share 1 common opponent: André Muniz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.