Brendan Allen vs Sam Alvey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-7-0Record34-18-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'2"
75"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
Brendan Allen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Sam Alvey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1824
If they lose-18→ 1800
If they win+18→ 1658
If they lose-6→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brendan AllenSam Alvey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brendan Allen92%
Sam Alvey 8%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Allen a 92% favorite over Sam Alvey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Brendan Allen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1818 to 1640, a 178-point edge.
Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Brendan Allen finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.