Combat Edge Intelligence

Brendan Allen vs Tom Breese

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

27-7-0Record18-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
75"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Renegade

What's at stake

Brendan Allen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Tom Breese carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brendan AllenNow 1818
If they win+7→ 1825
If they lose-17→ 1801
Tom BreeseNow 1662
If they win+17→ 1679
If they lose-7→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.59
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
53%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
47%
Strike defense
61%
1.56
Takedown avg.
0
42%
Takedown accuracy
0%
57%
Takedown defense
71%
1.14
Submission avg.
1.07

Trajectory

Brendan AllenTom Breese
1650170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (22%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
14 (52%)
Submission
12 (67%)
7 (26%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Brendan Allen92%
Tom Breese 8%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Allen a 92% favorite over Tom Breese in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Brendan Allen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1818 to 1662, a 156-point edge.

Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tom Breese enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Brendan Allen finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 94%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.