Brendan Allen vs Tom Breese
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-7-0Record21-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
75"Reach73.5"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Renegade· 1737 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Brendan Allen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Tom Breese carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1826
If they lose-17→ 1802
If they win+17→ 1699
If they lose-7→ 1675
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1736 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brendan AllenTom Breese
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brendan Allen84%
Tom Breese 16%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Allen a 84% favorite over Tom Breese in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Brendan Allen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1819 to 1682, a 137-point edge.
Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Brendan Allen finishes 74% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 90%.
Brendan Allen carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.