Brendan O'Reilly vs Zhang Lipeng
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-3-0Record34-13-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'11"
69,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gamebred Submission FightingTeamPhuket Top Team
What's at stake
Brendan O'Reilly is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Zhang Lipeng carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1542
If they lose-17→ 1510
If they win+26→ 1522
If they lose-22→ 1474
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brendan O'ReillyZhang Lipeng
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Zhang Lipeng54%
Brendan O'Reilly 46%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Zhang Lipeng a 54% favorite over Brendan O'Reilly in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brendan O'Reilly's way (46%).
Brendan O'Reilly holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1527 to 1496, a 31-point edge.
Brendan O'Reilly enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brendan O'Reilly finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Zhang Lipeng 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.