Brendan Schaub vs Gabriel Gonzaga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record17-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
TBDReach42,0"
238 lbsWeight264 lbs
Reign MMATeamTeam Link
What's at stake
Brendan Schaub is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Gabriel Gonzaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1695
If they lose-19→ 1663
If they win+14→ 1626
If they lose-10→ 1602
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brendan SchaubGabriel Gonzaga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brendan Schaub72%
Gabriel Gonzaga 28%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Schaub a 72% favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Brendan Schaub holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1612, a 70-point edge.
Brendan Schaub enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brendan Schaub finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Gabriel Gonzaga 94%.
Brendan Schaub and Gabriel Gonzaga share 4 common opponents: Travis Browne, Matt Mitrione, Ben Rothwell and Mirko Filipović.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.