Combat Edge Intelligence

Brendan Schaub vs Lavar Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record18-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
238 lbsWeight253 lbs
Reign MMATeamPro Buhawe

What's at stake

Brendan Schaub is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Lavar Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brendan SchaubNow 1682
If they win+8→ 1690
If they lose-24→ 1658
Lavar JohnsonNow 1487
If they win+24→ 1511
If they lose-8→ 1479

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1625 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.92
Sig. strikes / min
5.39
38%
Strike accuracy
55%
2.22
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.54
57%
Strike defense
55%
2.32
Takedown avg.
0.61
46%
Takedown accuracy
67%
73%
Takedown defense
54%
0.39
Submission avg.
0.61

Trajectory

Brendan SchaubLavar Johnson
150016001700201220132014

Win method breakdown

7 (70%)
KO/TKO
17 (94%)
1 (10%)
Submission
1 (6%)
2 (20%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Brendan Schaub83%
Lavar Johnson 17%Elo baseline: 75%

The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Schaub a 83% favorite over Lavar Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).

Brendan Schaub holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1487, a 195-point edge.

Brendan Schaub enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Lavar Johnson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Brendan Schaub finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Lavar Johnson 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.