Brendan Schaub vs Matt Mitrione
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record13-9-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
TBDReach43,0"
238 lbsWeight255 lbs
Reign MMATeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Brendan Schaub is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Matt Mitrione carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1696
If they lose-18→ 1664
If they win+18→ 1650
If they lose-14→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1707 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brendan SchaubMatt Mitrione
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brendan Schaub75%
Matt Mitrione 25%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Schaub a 75% favorite over Matt Mitrione in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Brendan Schaub holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1632, a 50-point edge.
Brendan Schaub enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Mitrione enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Brendan Schaub finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Matt Mitrione 85%.
Brendan Schaub and Matt Mitrione share 2 common opponents: Travis Browne and Ben Rothwell.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.