Brendan Schaub vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
TBDReach72,0"
238 lbsWeight249 lbs
Reign MMATeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Brendan Schaub is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1695
If they lose-18→ 1663
If they win+14→ 1646
If they lose-10→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brendan SchaubRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brendan Schaub59%
Roy Nelson 41%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Schaub a 59% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Brendan Schaub holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1681 to 1632, a 49-point edge.
Brendan Schaub enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Brendan Schaub finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Brendan Schaub and Roy Nelson share 2 common opponents: Matt Mitrione and Mirko Filipović.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.