Combat Edge Intelligence

Brendson Ribeiro vs Diyar Nurgozhay

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-10-0Record11-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
81"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Brazilian TKOTeamTobet Top Team

What's at stake

Diyar Nurgozhay is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brendson Ribeiro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brendson RibeiroNow 1566
If they win+21→ 1587
If they lose-11→ 1555
Diyar NurgozhayNow 1683
If they win+11→ 1694
If they lose-21→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.04
Sig. strikes / min
3.04
43%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
53%
Strike defense
61%
0.85
Takedown avg.
2.54
43%
Takedown accuracy
100%
21%
Takedown defense
100%
0.57
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Brendson RibeiroDiyar Nurgozhay
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (53%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
7 (41%)
Submission
2 (18%)
1 (6%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Diyar Nurgozhay57%
Brendson Ribeiro 43%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Diyar Nurgozhay a 57% favorite over Brendson Ribeiro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Diyar Nurgozhay holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1683 to 1566, a 117-point edge.

Brendson Ribeiro enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Brendson Ribeiro finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Diyar Nurgozhay 73%.

Brendson Ribeiro carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.