Brendson Ribeiro vs Diyar Nurgozhay
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record12-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
81"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Brazilian TKO· 1650 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTobet Top Team
What's at stake
Diyar Nurgozhay is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Brendson Ribeiro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1575
If they lose-10→ 1543
If they win+10→ 1709
If they lose-22→ 1677
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1654 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brendson RibeiroDiyar Nurgozhay
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Diyar Nurgozhay84%
Brendson Ribeiro 16%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Diyar Nurgozhay a 84% favorite over Brendson Ribeiro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Diyar Nurgozhay holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1553, a 146-point edge.
Brendson Ribeiro enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Diyar Nurgozhay enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Brendson Ribeiro finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Diyar Nurgozhay 75%.
Brendson Ribeiro and Diyar Nurgozhay share 1 common opponent: Bruno Lopes.
Brendson Ribeiro carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.