Brendson Ribeiro vs Jesse Murray
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record10-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
81"Reach78"
205 lbsWeight206 lbs
Brazilian TKO· 1650 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamStrongstyle MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1569
If they lose-16→ 1537
If they win+16→ 1572
If they lose-16→ 1540
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1654 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brendson RibeiroJesse Murray
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brendson Ribeiro56%
Jesse Murray 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Brendson Ribeiro a 56% favorite over Jesse Murray in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jesse Murray's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1553 vs 1556), separated by just 3 points.
Brendson Ribeiro enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Brendson Ribeiro finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Jesse Murray 60%.
Brendson Ribeiro carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.