Combat Edge Intelligence

Bret Bergmark vs Zach Scroggin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-1-1Record7-1-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height6'3"
TBDReach74"
169 lbsWeight183 lbs
Cesar Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamMarathon MMA· 1669 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bret BergmarkNow 1620
If they win+24→ 1644
If they lose-24→ 1596
Zach ScrogginNow 1623
If they win+24→ 1647
If they lose-24→ 1599

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1551 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.78
Sig. strikes / min
2.40
53%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
8.80
38%
Strike defense
69%
4.17
Takedown avg.
0
100%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
50%
Takedown defense
0%
4.17
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Bret BergmarkZach Scroggin
15001550160016502009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

2 (33%)
KO/TKO
3 (43%)
1 (17%)
Submission
2 (29%)
3 (50%)
Decision
2 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Bret Bergmark and Zach Scroggin within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1620 vs 1623), separated by just 3 points.

Bret Bergmark enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Bret Bergmark finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Zach Scroggin 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.