Brett Johns vs Tony Gravely
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-5-0Record23-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'5"
39.00Reach69"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Chris Rees AcademyTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Tony Gravely is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Brett Johns carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1624
If they lose-12→ 1592
If they win+9→ 1693
If they lose-15→ 1669
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brett JohnsTony Gravely
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Gravely70%
Brett Johns 30%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Gravely a 70% favorite over Brett Johns in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Tony Gravely holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1604, a 80-point edge.
Brett Johns enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tony Gravely enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brett Johns finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tony Gravely 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.