Brett Rogers vs Jared Vanderaa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record18-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'4"
TBDReach80"
262 lbsWeight259 lbs
TeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1587
If they lose-12→ 1563
If they win+12→ 1587
If they lose-12→ 1563
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brett RogersJared Vanderaa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jared Vanderaa57%
Brett Rogers 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Jared Vanderaa a 57% favorite over Brett Rogers in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brett Rogers's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1575 vs 1575), separated by just 0 points.
Jared Vanderaa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brett Rogers finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Jared Vanderaa 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.