Combat Edge Intelligence

Brett Rogers vs Marcos Brigagao

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-10-0Record17-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'4"
TBDReachTBD
262 lbsWeight210 lbs
TBDTeamD.O METHODOLOGY

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brett RogersNow 1573
If they win+12→ 1585
If they lose-12→ 1561
Marcos BrigagaoNow 1572
If they win+16→ 1588
If they lose-16→ 1556

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1556 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.07
TBD
Strike accuracy
43%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
TBD
Strike defense
26%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
36%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Brett RogersMarcos Brigagao
1550160016502013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

15 (88%)
KO/TKO
12 (71%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (18%)
2 (12%)
Decision
2 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcos Brigagao52%
Brett Rogers 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcos Brigagao a 52% favorite over Brett Rogers in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brett Rogers's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1573 vs 1572), separated by just 1 points.

Marcos Brigagao enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brett Rogers finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Brigagao 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.