Brian Ebersole vs Chris Lytle
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
51-18-1Record31-18-5
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamIntegrated Fighting Academy
What's at stake
Chris Lytle is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brian Ebersole carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1694
If they lose-11→ 1670
If they win+11→ 1717
If they lose-13→ 1693
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brian EbersoleChris Lytle
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brian Ebersole56%
Chris Lytle 44%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Brian Ebersole a 56% favorite over Chris Lytle in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Lytle's way (46%).
Chris Lytle holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1706 to 1681, a 25-point edge.
Brian Ebersole enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brian Ebersole finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Chris Lytle 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.