Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Ebersole vs Omari Akhmedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

51-18-1Record24-8-1
WelterweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Omari Akhmedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brian Ebersole carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brian EbersoleNow 1683
If they win+13→ 1696
If they lose-11→ 1672
Omari AkhmedovNow 1715
If they win+11→ 1726
If they lose-13→ 1702

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.32
Sig. strikes / min
2.97
50%
Strike accuracy
34%
2.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.84
56%
Strike defense
56%
1.70
Takedown avg.
2.58
23%
Takedown accuracy
46%
62%
Takedown defense
66%
0.13
Submission avg.
0.25

Trajectory

Brian EbersoleOmari Akhmedov
17001750201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

17 (33%)
KO/TKO
8 (33%)
17 (33%)
Submission
7 (29%)
17 (33%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Omari Akhmedov78%
Brian Ebersole 22%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Omari Akhmedov a 78% favorite over Brian Ebersole in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Omari Akhmedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1683, a 32-point edge.

Brian Ebersole enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brian Ebersole finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Omari Akhmedov 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.