Brian Ebersole vs TJ Waldburger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
51-18-1Record16-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamGrapplers Lair Fight Team
What's at stake
Brian Ebersole is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — TJ Waldburger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1692
If they lose-15→ 1668
If they win+20→ 1612
If they lose-12→ 1580
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian EbersoleTJ Waldburger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
TJ Waldburger53%
Brian Ebersole 47%Elo baseline: 37%
The Combat Edge model makes TJ Waldburger a 53% favorite over Brian Ebersole in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brian Ebersole's way (37%).
Brian Ebersole holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1683 to 1592, a 91-point edge.
Brian Ebersole enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
TJ Waldburger enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brian Ebersole finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, TJ Waldburger 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.