Brian Ebersole vs Trey Waters
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
51-18-1Record10-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'5"
TBDReach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamLudus MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1693
If they lose-12→ 1669
If they win+16→ 1696
If they lose-16→ 1664
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brian EbersoleTrey Waters
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Trey Waters56%
Brian Ebersole 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Trey Waters a 56% favorite over Brian Ebersole in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brian Ebersole's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1681 vs 1680), separated by just 1 points.
Brian Ebersole enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brian Ebersole finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Trey Waters 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.