Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Foster vs Brock Larson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-13-0Record42-10-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Factory XTeamGet Sum Athletic Compound

What's at stake

Brock Larson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Brian Foster carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brian FosterNow 1624
If they win+16→ 1640
If they lose-8→ 1616
Brock LarsonNow 1743
If they win+8→ 1751
If they lose-16→ 1727

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.30
Sig. strikes / min
1.39
40%
Strike accuracy
47%
1.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.50
65%
Strike defense
56%
3.67
Takedown avg.
2.67
60%
Takedown accuracy
34%
38%
Takedown defense
43%
1.83
Submission avg.
2

Trajectory

Brian FosterBrock Larson
16501700175020142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

15 (50%)
KO/TKO
15 (37%)
14 (47%)
Submission
21 (51%)
1 (3%)
Decision
5 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Brock Larson75%
Brian Foster 25%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Brock Larson a 75% favorite over Brian Foster in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Brock Larson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1624, a 119-point edge.

Brian Foster finishes 97% of wins inside the distance, Brock Larson 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.