Brian Foster vs Chris Lytle
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-13-0Record31-18-5
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Factory XTeamIntegrated Fighting Academy
What's at stake
Chris Lytle is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Brian Foster carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1639
If they lose-9→ 1615
If they win+9→ 1715
If they lose-15→ 1691
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian FosterChris Lytle
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Lytle75%
Brian Foster 25%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Lytle a 75% favorite over Brian Foster in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Chris Lytle holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1706 to 1624, a 82-point edge.
Brian Foster finishes 97% of wins inside the distance, Chris Lytle 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.