Brian Geraghty vs Matt Wiman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-18-1Record16-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
TBDReach68,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Freestyle AcademyTeamSkrap Pack
What's at stake
Matt Wiman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brian Geraghty carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1591
If they lose-11→ 1567
If they win+11→ 1615
If they lose-13→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1638 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brian GeraghtyMatt Wiman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Wiman67%
Brian Geraghty 33%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Wiman a 67% favorite over Brian Geraghty in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Matt Wiman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1604 to 1578, a 26-point edge.
Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brian Geraghty finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Matt Wiman 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.