Brian Houston vs Trevor Smith
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-7-0Record15-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
TBDReach41,5"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Disorderly ConductTeamRing Demon Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Trevor Smith is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Brian Houston carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1476
If they lose-10→ 1444
If they win+10→ 1610
If they lose-22→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian HoustonTrevor Smith
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Trevor Smith54%
Brian Houston 46%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Trevor Smith a 54% favorite over Brian Houston in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Trevor Smith holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1600 to 1454, a 146-point edge.
Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brian Houston finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Trevor Smith 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.