Brian Johnston vs Don Frye
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-5-0Record20-9-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
TBDReach73"
222 lbsWeight210 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1638 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamTeam Frye
What's at stake
Don Frye is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Brian Johnston carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1448
If they lose-8→ 1416
If they win+6→ 1615
If they lose-18→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1519 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brian JohnstonDon Frye
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Don Frye63%
Brian Johnston 37%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Don Frye a 63% favorite over Brian Johnston in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Don Frye holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1609 to 1424, a 185-point edge.
Brian Johnston enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Don Frye enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brian Johnston finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Don Frye 95%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.