Brian Johnston vs Ryo Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-5-0Record15-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
222 lbsWeight246 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1637 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamRanger Gym
What's at stake
Ryo Sakai is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Brian Johnston carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1443
If they lose-13→ 1411
If they win+10→ 1504
If they lose-14→ 1480
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brian JohnstonRyo Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai65%
Brian Johnston 35%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 65% favorite over Brian Johnston in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Ryo Sakai holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1494 to 1424, a 70-point edge.
Brian Johnston enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brian Johnston finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Sakai 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.