Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Kelleher vs Cody Garbrandt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-16-0Record15-8-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
66"Reach65"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Maxum BJJTeamTeam Alpha Male

What's at stake

Cody Garbrandt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brian Kelleher carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brian KelleherNow 1635
If they win+13→ 1648
If they lose-11→ 1624
Cody GarbrandtNow 1671
If they win+11→ 1682
If they lose-13→ 1658

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1708 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.31
Sig. strikes / min
2.79
41%
Strike accuracy
40%
4.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.66
55%
Strike defense
59%
1.68
Takedown avg.
0.85
42%
Takedown accuracy
23%
60%
Takedown defense
82%
0.67
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Brian KelleherCody Garbrandt
1650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (33%)
KO/TKO
11 (73%)
10 (42%)
Submission
0 (0%)
6 (25%)
Decision
4 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Cody Garbrandt92%
Brian Kelleher 8%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Cody Garbrandt a 92% favorite over Brian Kelleher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Cody Garbrandt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1671 to 1635, a 36-point edge.

Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Brian Kelleher finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Cody Garbrandt 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.