Brian Kelleher vs Mario Bautista
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-16-0Record18-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'9"
66"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Maxum BJJTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Mario Bautista is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Brian Kelleher carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1652
If they lose-7→ 1628
If they win+9→ 1799
If they lose-23→ 1767
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian KelleherMario Bautista
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mario Bautista92%
Brian Kelleher 8%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 92% favorite over Brian Kelleher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Mario Bautista holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1790 to 1635, a 155-point edge.
Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Brian Kelleher finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Mario Bautista 56%.
Brian Kelleher and Mario Bautista share 2 common opponents: Umar Nurmagomedov and Ricky Simón.
Mario Bautista carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.