Brian Kelleher vs Renan Barão
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-16-0Record34-10-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
66"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Maxum BJJTeamPitbull Brothers
What's at stake
Brian Kelleher is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Renan Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1646
If they lose-13→ 1622
If they win+18→ 1616
If they lose-14→ 1584
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian KelleherRenan Barão
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Renan Barão57%
Brian Kelleher 43%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Renan Barão a 57% favorite over Brian Kelleher in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brian Kelleher's way (45%).
Brian Kelleher holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1635 to 1598, a 37-point edge.
Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Brian Kelleher finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Renan Barão 68%.
Renan Barão carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.