Brian Melancon vs James Vake
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record7-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'11"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Paradigm Training CenterTeamCity Kickboxing
What's at stake
Brian Melancon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — James Vake carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1608
If they lose-26→ 1560
If they win+26→ 1584
If they lose-22→ 1536
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian MelanconJames Vake
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
James Vake60%
Brian Melancon 40%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes James Vake a 60% favorite over Brian Melancon in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brian Melancon's way (46%).
Brian Melancon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1586 to 1558, a 28-point edge.
James Vake enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brian Melancon finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, James Vake 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.