Brian Melancon vs Ryan Gerena
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record4-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Paradigm Training CenterTeamVamos BJJ
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1610
If they lose-24→ 1562
If they win+24→ 1608
If they lose-24→ 1560
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian MelanconRyan Gerena
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Gerena60%
Brian Melancon 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Gerena a 60% favorite over Brian Melancon in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Brian Melancon's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1586 vs 1584), separated by just 2 points.
Ryan Gerena enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Brian Melancon finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Gerena 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.