Brian Melancon vs Seth Baczynski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record21-16-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Paradigm Training CenterTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
Brian Melancon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Seth Baczynski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1608
If they lose-26→ 1560
If they win+13→ 1567
If they lose-11→ 1543
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian MelanconSeth Baczynski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brian Melancon72%
Seth Baczynski 28%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Brian Melancon a 72% favorite over Seth Baczynski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Brian Melancon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1586 to 1554, a 32-point edge.
Seth Baczynski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Brian Melancon finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Seth Baczynski 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.