Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Melancon vs Theodor Berggren

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-3-0Record8-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height6'0"
TBDReach75"
170 lbsWeight167 lbs
Paradigm Training CenterTeamRenyi

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brian MelanconNow 1586
If they win+24→ 1610
If they lose-24→ 1562
Theodor BerggrenNow 1589
If they win+16→ 1605
If they lose-16→ 1573

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1580 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.18
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
49%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
65%
Strike defense
TBD
2.02
Takedown avg.
TBD
100%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Brian MelanconTheodor Berggren
15501600201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (57%)
KO/TKO
5 (63%)
1 (14%)
Submission
3 (38%)
2 (29%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Theodor Berggren70%
Brian Melancon 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Theodor Berggren a 70% favorite over Brian Melancon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1586 vs 1589), separated by just 3 points.

Brian Melancon finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Theodor Berggren 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.