Brian Ortega vs Clay Guida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record38-25-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
69"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Black HouseTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
Brian Ortega is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1727
If they lose-21→ 1695
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-8→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian OrtegaClay Guida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brian Ortega84%
Clay Guida 16%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Brian Ortega a 84% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Brian Ortega holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1599, a 117-point edge.
Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brian Ortega finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Clay Guida 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.